By Tom Peters
Sorry I haven’t posted in a while. The ice storm in the Northeast left me powerless until late Wednesday night. Luckily I made my ESPN picks that week to the tune of a despicable 8 – 8. It was a good week to pick poorly because none of you could see the picks. (Losses were Tampa, Washington, KC, GB, Tennessee, Arizona, Baltimore, NYG) My record for the year is now 141 – 82 – 1.
I’m looking forward to these games, including Indy (I did pick them to win). With playoff spots on the line, this week’s games will be very competitive and hard to pick.
Let’s go.
Dallas Cowboys ( 9 – 5 ) v. Baltimore Ravens ( 9 – 5 )
You have to respect Dallas after beating the Giants last week. However, don’t be too quick to overrate them and pencil them into the playoffs. They beat a Giants team that did not have Jacobs and 2/5 of their offensive line (Boothe sucks by the way, thankfully Proctor made him look intelligent). The Ravens barely lost to the Steelers on a questionable call. Their defense is still one of the best in the league. Marion Barber is not going to be 100% and I doubt he’ll play the whole game. If he does, he will get hurt again. The Ravens secondary can jump routes and they have some of the best pass coverage linebackers. They should have no problem getting to Romo. They key to this game is how will the Cowboys defense do against Joe Flacco. Additionally, this is a Cowboys team that cannot protect it’s quarterback.
MY PICK: RAVENS (My gut tells me that the playoff chances for the Cowboys and the AFC runner ups are done)
Cincinnati Bengals ( 2 – 11 – 1) v. Cleveland Browns ( 4 – 10 )
What a terrible game. You have to give the Bengals credit in defeating the Redskins and ending Jim Zorn’s tenure as coach. The Browns are a mess. They are crappier than the color of their uniforms. You can’t win games with a 3rd string quarterback and an inept defense. This game is probably the most inconsequential game of them week, but I can’t trust the Browns until Bill Cowher comes to coach them.
MY PICK: BENGALS
New Orleans Saints ( 7 – 7 ) v. Detroit Lions ( 0 – 14 )
Its this simple. Pierre Thomas is good, the Lions run defense is bad. The Saints defense is terrible, but so is the Lions offense. Plus, the pattern dictates the Saints should win.
MY PICK: SAINTS
Pittsburgh Steelers ( 11 – 3 ) v. Tennessee Titans ( 12 – 2 )
If you’re looking for offense, this is not the game for you. The Steelers have this knack for finding a way to win at the last minute. The Titans will keep Rothelisberger & Parker in check for the first 55 minutes of the game. Chris Johnson will not do much against the Steeler defense and Kerry Collins will be ineffective in the passing game. If the Titans are to score against a team holding its opponents to less than 13 points in five straight games, it’ll be due to a defensive touchdown or a LenDale White run on the goal line. I’ve been saying it all season long, the Steelers are the best team in the AFC.
MY PICK: STEELERS(This will put the Colts – Steelers AFC Championship game in Pittsburgh)
Miami Dolphins ( 9 – 5 ) v. Kansas City Chiefs ( 2 – 12 )
Letting Carl Peterson go is not a good thing, especially if your name is Herman Edwards. I’ve been swinging back and forth on this game. Everyone loves the Dolphins and what they have done this season. It’s well deserved, but as I’ve been saying all season long the Chiefs are an improving young team. They have been playing hard and have been in positions to win. This game is going to be severely affected by the weather. The temperature is expected to be 11 at game time with a wind chill of -3. This is not good for a team that has a history of poor play in cold conditions. I expect the Chiefs to utilize the home field advantages and end the Dolphins playoff chances.
MY PICK: CHIEFS
San Francisco 49ers ( 5 – 9 ) v. St. Louis Rams ( 2 – 12 )
Let’s face it, the Rams suck, especially after blowing that 16 point lead at home against Seattle. The 49ers are playing hard and have been successful at it.
MY PICK: 49ERS
Arizona Cardinals ( 8 – 6 ) v. New England Patriots ( 9 – 5 )
The Cardinals are truly the most overrated team in the NFL. They can’t play defense, they can’t run the ball. They don’t have Bill Belichick on the sideline and it’s going to be another cold, snowy day here in the Northeast (could be 7 inches on top of the 12 I just shoveled). The Patriots will, out run, out pass and out last this teams destined for a first round playoff loss.
MY PICK: PATRIOTS(expect big numbers out of Cassel, Moss and Welker)
San Diego Chargers ( 6 – 8 ) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( 9 – 5 )
I’m not sure where to go on this game. The Chargers have been terribly disappointing this season, especially against lower talent. Then I found out that Jeff Garcia was supposed to start. This is reassuring. The Chargers have been unable to run for more than 4 yards a carry. The passing game has been inconsistent and the defense has fallen short of its expectation. I expect a good Buccaneer defense to correct it’s recent troubles against the run and the offense should be able to demonstrate the needed balance to win the game.
MY PICK: BUCCANEERS (I still think the South is sending three games)
New York Jets ( 9 – 5 ) v. Seattle Seahawks ( 3 – 11 )
I almost want to pick the Seahawks. The jets have been terrible on the West Coast and even worse the last few weeks. It’s Mike Holmgren’s last game in Seattle against his protege Brett Favre who is worse than the stock market these days. Let’s put it into perspective. The Seahawks needed a massive comeback against the Rams last week. Deion Branch already had his game of the year and the Jets ave too much riding on the line. This game is needed to save the Jets divisional chances and Eric Mangini’s job.
MY PICK: JETS (I’m not sure of it though)
Houston Texans ( 7 – 7 ) v. Oakland Raiders ( 3 – 11 )
Its amazing that the Raiders beat two playoff teams and almost beat another two. The Texans are the second hottest team in the league right now. The Matt Schaub – Andre Johnson connection is more productive than a GM plant and Steve Slaton is giving defenses fits. The Raiders have a good defense, but their offense cannot compensate for the many different ways the Texans can score.
MY PICK: TEXANS(Imagine what would have happened had Schaub not been injured)
Buffalo Bills ( 6 – 8 ) v. Denver Broncos ( 8 – 6 )
The Bills have found every conceivable way to lose a game this year. There is no way the Bills can beat the Broncos with a small defensive line and a banged up secondary. Expect Jay Cutler to have a monster game.
MY PICK: BRONCOS (AFC West Champions, Norv’s career is officially over)
Philadelphia Eagles ( 8 – 5 – 1 ) v. Washington Redskins ( 7 – 7 )
The Redskins come into this game losers of 4 straight. Make it 5. Clinton Portis will not be 100% and I can’t see Jason Campbell being effective against the Philadelphia blitz. Donovan McNabb has been stellar since his benching. The only way for the Redskins to win this game is to use Ladell Betts effectively, I can’t imagine the Eagles defense having difficulty stopping the run.
MY PICK: EAGLES
Atlanta Falcons ( 9 – 5 ) v. Minnesota Vikings ( 9 – 5 )
The Vikings need this game to clinch the NFC North. Even if they win, I want Brad Childress fired. Tavaris Jackson had a decent game last week, but you can’t expect him to do it again. There was a reason he was benched in Week 2. Pat Williams is injured for the remainder of the regular season (if not, longer). Expect Michael Turner to exploit this hole in the wall. When the Falcons aren’t running the ball, you can expect Matt Ryan to throw all day against the mediocre Vikings secondary. It comes down to this, the Falcons offense against a weakened defense is better than a Viking offense that really can’t pass the ball. My only hope is that the Bears lose.
MY PICK: FALCONS
Carolina Panthers ( 11 – 3 ) v. New York Giants ( 11 – 3 )
Everyone seems to be hating on the Giants. I refuse to. This is the NFL, teams are going to lose to division rivals. In the NFC East, the only series that was swept was the Redskins – Giants series ( Giants winning both). Teams with familiarityagainst one another will likely split the games. The Giants lost games in which they were without Brandon Jacobs (he’s back this week) and 2/5 of their offensive line. A 100% healthy Giants teams does not lose both of these games. The Panthers are good, but they are a bit overrated. Jake Delhomme is a terribly overrated quarterback. The Panthers have managed to find ways to win when Delhomme has had terrible games (i.e. Oakland). Their running games is the best in the game, but the Giants defense is excellent against the run. When you take the weather, the ability of the Giants to stop the run do you really expect Delhomme to win the game?
MY PICK: GIANTS ( The road to the Super Bowl goes through NY, but the Panthers will get a bye with a Vikings loss)
Green Bay Packers ( 5 – 9 ) v. Chicago Bears ( 8 – 6 )
When will the Packers decide to play defense? Not this week. Matt Forte and Devin Hester will have very good games against a Packers team that can;t stop anybody. The only question is whether or not the Bears can stop Aaron Rodgers & Ryan Grant. A 37 – 3 defeat at home a few weeks ago tells me they can’t.
MY PICK: PACKERS (Vikings win the North).
There you go. Argue with me, I dare you.
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