By Tom Peters
I actually had a very good week last week. I went 12 – 4 and I made terrible picks in the Bears (I should have more faith in my Vikings) Bills and over estimated the Cardinals. Nonetheless, I now boast a record of 123 – 68 – 1.
With 14 games on Sunday, I have a lot of writing to do, so let’s get to it.
Jacksonville Jaguars ( 4 – 8 ) v. Chicago Bears ( 6 – 6 )
The ears got their asses handed to the last week at Minnesota. The offense looked inept and the defense had a hard time stopping the run. Under normal circumstances, a team dedicated to the run like Jacksonville should have the advantage. But this is the Jaguars, one of the few teams to look worse than the Bears last week. I think the Jaguars have given up on the season and the offensive line is too porous. The Bear defense should control this game against the biggest disappointment in the league. Don’t forget, this game is in Chicago and it will be cold and windy.
MY PICK: Bears
Minnesota Vikings ( 7 – 5 ) v. Detroit Lions ( 0 – 12 )
Trap game!!!! The Vikings needed a generous pass interference penalty and a last second field goal to beat the Lions 12 – 10 in Week 6. While the Vikings handily beat the Bears, it was all due to the running game and the goal-line stance in the second quarter. Take away the 99 yards TD pass to Berrian and the Vikings pass for under 150 yards. I know, I know, the Lions are terrible. Guess what? All 0-12 teams are terrible. Most people are picking the Vikings. I don’t trust them. When you look at the Week 6 game and their inept passing game, Marinelli might be desperate enough to throw 10 or 11 people in the box. I smell an upset. Seriously.
MY PICK: Lions
Houston Texans ( 5 – 7 ) v. Green Bay Packers ( 5 – 7 )
This is a tough game to pick and it’s all due to the Packers inability play defense. The Texans are better than their 5-7 record indicates. The offense looked good against and inept Jaguars defense. We know the Packers can’t stop the run, but this game is in Lambeau and it is against a southern team that doesn’t have any real experience in cold weather. I expect Mario William to get in his sacks, but look for Ryan Grant to rush for over 100 yards. Steve Slaton will rush for over 125, but I give an advantage to the Packers passing game. If Aaron Rodgers can remain upright, they should be able to throw it in the Frozen Tundra.
MY PICK: Packers
Cleveland Browns ( 4 – 8 ) v. Tennessee Titans ( 11 – 1 )
Wow!!!! Do we really need to talk about this? The Browns enter the game against an upper echelon defense with their 3rd string QB!!!!! Shouldn’t be close. Ken Dorsey will have a hard time. If the Browns win this game they will be the only team to beat the top seeds in both conferences. This is nothing more than a pipe dream. I have a better chance of winning Mega Millions.
MY PICK: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals ( 1 – 10 – 1) v. Indianapolis Colts ( 8 - 4 )
If you think the Colts will play terribly and fail to score an offensive touchdown in consecutive weeks, then you’ve been hanging out with Shaun Ellis and Ricky Williams way too long. This is just a kink on the road to the AFC Championship game against the Steelers. The Bengals have no offense without Carson Palmer and the defense has been less than stellar. Expect Peyton Manning to exploit the young secondary and throw for over 350 yards.
MY PICK: Colts
Atlanta Falcons (8 – 4 ) v. New Orleans Saints ( 6 – 6 )
I was watching Noggin with my daughter and Moose and Zee were going over patterns. It made me think of the Saints this year. WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS……. They lost to the Buccaneers last week. Logic dictate they will win. However, the NFL defies logic. Matt Ryan is like wine, the older he gets, the better he is. The more you play him, the better you feel. Ryan provides the Falcons with the balance that an NFL team needs. They were very impressive on the road at San Diego and learning how to win on the road pays it dividends. The Saints are too inconsistent on defense and the running game still has major questions. Let me know when Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush can start running between the tackles. He should use the Kardashian sisters as practice.
MY PICK: Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles ( 6 – 5 – 1) v. New York Giants ( 11 – 1 )
This game should be played at an NYC high school with a metal detector, just in case Plaxico decides to bring his army. Too soon? Sorry, had to get it out of my system.
In all seriousness, this is the 2nd best game of the week. The Eagles need this game to save their season. The Giants could clinch the division. The Giants have not allowed the major distraction to get to them yet. This should continue. The Eagles have been susceptible to the pass all season long. The Giants running game can get through the blitzes, which should set up Manning for a decent game with the pass. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Johnson (Eagles defensive coordinator) put 7 or 8 in the box and dare Eli Manning to beat him. His strategy will be interesting. McNabb had a great game last week, but he hasn’t strung 2 in a row in a long time. Expect that trend to continue. Plaxico who?
MY PICK: Giants
New York Jets ( 8 – 4 ) v. San Francisco 49ers ( 4 – 8 )
Don’t let last week’s results affect the pick for this week. The 49ers were not impressive in their win against a Trent Edwards-less Buffalo. Their failure to take advantage of opportunities will hurt them against a team like the Jets. the Jets were given a dose of reality when they got owned by the Broncos last week. They won’t play down to their competition two weeks in a row. The content 49ers, a team that has played much harder and looked better under coach Mike Singletary, will run into a buzzsaw when the angry Jets step on the field. Brett Favre has always played well against the 49ers. I would expect the same on Sunday.
MY PICK: Jets
Kansas City Chiefs ( 2 – 10 ) v. Denver Broncos ( 7 – 5 )
I’m starting the like Kansas City, but Denver really impressed me last week. Peyton Hillis might be the answer at running back. Jay Cutler was very effective in terrible conditions last week at the Meadowlands. Even though the Chiefs beat the Broncos in Week 5, the game is in Denver and the Broncos have been playing really well as of late. Expect Cutler and Hillis to have big games.
MY PICK: Broncos
Miami Dolphins ( 7 – 5 ) v. Buffalo Bills ( 6 – 6 ) at Toronto, Canada
Why would the Bills agree to give up a home game in December to play indoors? This game doesn’t bode well for the Bills. Trent Edwards will likely miss this game leaving them with JP Losman. Losman hasn’t done anything good this season. In both games played by Losman, the Bills lost to NFC West teams and the offense put on the emergency brakes. The ravaged secondary and offensive line has been unable to their job since starting 4 – 0. The Dolphins have been winning games by playing sound football. They’ve begun to abandon the Wildcat and have played well using more traditional offenses. Expect Ronnie Brown to be effective against the shaky defensive line and Chad Pennington could thrown for over 275 yards against the inept secondary. This game being inside at the Rogers Centre doesn’t help the Bills either. It’s the perfect storm,
MY PICK: Dolphins
New England Patriots (7 – 5 ) v. Seattle Seahawks ( 2 – 10 )
Lose a rough game to the Steelers at home and get a two week vacation to the West Coast. The first game of this trip should be like taking a vacation. The Seahawks proved they are not good after last week’s blowout against the Cowboys. Matt Cassel and Randy Moss will rebound against a very questionable secondary. Expect them to have huge games. The Patriots defense will rough up Hasselbeck like a bad Expedia commercial. I can’t see any good coming out of this game. I wouldn’t ne surprised if we start hearing stores about how Jim Mora Jr. has undermined Holmgren all season.
MY PICK: Patriots( this could lead to some explosions on the Seahawk sideline)
St. Louis Rams ( 2 – 10 ) v. Arizona Cardinals ( 7 – 5 )
Think the Cardinals are glad to be playing a divisional foe? The Cardinals learned their fate the last two weeks. Win the division, lose the first round game. The Cardinals are like that 4th grade bully. They may be bigger than their peers, but upon entering the 6th grade wing they will suffer the same fate that every other team does in the division. The Rams can’t stop anyone and just like McLovin, they can’t score. Steven Jackson will be back, but the receiving corps is young, Torry Holt is no longer a part of this offense and the offensive line provides less protection than a broken condom.
MY PICK: Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys ( 8 – 4 ) v. Pittsburgh Steelers ( 9 - 3 )
I generally know who is going to these games by Wednesday. I can’t say the same for this game. I keep wavering back and forth and talking my way through this like a the contestants on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire when they don’t know the answer. The Cowboys offense is back, but I have to see them played a quality team. Wins against Washington and Seattle are not that impressive. The Steelers defense has lived up to every challenge presented them this year. Can they stop Tony Romo and Marion Barber? The Steelers offense has been effective, the Cowboys defense still has some question marks, especially against good teams (the Giants are a good example here).
When picking this game you have to look at the proven defense vs the flashy, untested offense. There is no question the Cowboys are better with Tony Romo, but I think the Steeler defense will do a good job of anticipating Barber’s runs, bumping TO in coverage while denying Romo the ability to throw it to Witten in the middle.
MY PICK: Steelers
Washington Redskins ( 7 – 5 ) v. Baltimore Ravens ( 8 – 4 )
This will be an interesting game, but the end result will leave people to ask “What’s happened to the Redskins?” They enter this game on a 2-game losing streak against very good teams. Make it 3-games. The Ravens defense will win this game for two reasons. First, Clinton Portis is questionable and the Ravens are generally good against the run. If Portis rushes for more than 50 yards, I will be surprised. Second, the secondary will have at least two interceptions. It’s a safe bet that one of them will be a pick-six. Expect Joe Flacco to have a respectable game.
MY PICK: Ravens
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( 9 – 3 ) v. Carolina Panthers ( 9 – 3 )
The winner of this game will win the NFC South. The Panthers have done a very good job in running the ball lately but the passing game is suspect. Is there something wrong with Jake DelHomme? It is possible that his arm is tired after recently coming back from Tommy John surgery. The full recovery window is over a year. The Bucs defense has quietly done the job by taking away the teams strengths. While the Panthers are balanced, the strength is the running game and Gruden should find a way to stop the big run. The Tampa Bay offense should find a way to pick at the Panthers defense. While this is a good game, the Panthers are overrated. They haven’t won in impressive fashion and there are times where they just look bad, particularlyagainst teams with good defenses.
MY PICK: Buccaneers
Those are the Week 14 picks. If you want to win this week, go with mine. The streak of 10+ wins should continue.
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