by Tom Peters
I did not do so well in my selections last week. My bad case of overestimitis and underestimitosis led me to a mediocre 9 – 7, bringing my season record to 111 - 64 – 1, not bad for a bowling league.
My thanksgiving games were brought to you my the singer Meat Loaf. I won’t be sad cause two out of three ain’t bad.
I have awoken from my tryptophan induced coma to bring you this weeks picks. So, here we go:
San Francisco 49ers ( 3 – 8 ) v. Buffalo Bills ( 6 – 5 )
The Bills looked impressive in steamrolling the Chiefs last week. Trent Edwards finally looked like the quarterback he should be. The 49ers are going to cold, frigid, windy Buffalo for a 1pm game. West Coast teams still have yet to win an afternoon game on the East Coast. The streak should continue. Face it, the 49ers just aren’t that good.
MY PICK: Bills
Baltimore Ravens ( 7 – 4 ) v. Cincinnati Bengals ( 1 – 9 )
Does anyone really expect the Bengals to have any success against the Ravens defense. We saw what happened when they played the Steelers last week. The Ravens defense did bad things to the Eagles and they have this ability to wear teams down to create huge 4th quarters. I would expect Joe Flacco to have a big game and Cincy should be finished off quite early.
MY PICK: Ravens
Indianapolis Colts ( 7 – 4 ) v. Cleveland Browns ( 4 – 7 )
Brady Quinn is out for the season. Enter Derek Anderson, a quarterback who has completed more passes to the other team than his own. You can’t win completing less than 50% of your passes, especially against the Colts. Indy squeezed out a close win last week against the Chargers. They have won 4 straight, 3 of which were against the most highly regarded teams in the AFC. The Browns are hurting and the Colts are putting themselves in a good position to make a serious Super Bowl run.
MY PICK: Colts
Carolina Panthers ( 8 – 3 ) v. Green Bay Packers ( 5 – 6 )
Generally, a December game at Lambeau means a guaranteed Packers victory. But this is 2008 and the Packers are not the Packers. They can’t stop the run. Carolina runs the ball very well. They can’t stop the pass. The Panthers can throw the ball too. Ryan Grant does well in cold weather and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been all that bad, but the Panthers defense is legit. Combine all that with the run of poor defense the Pack has been playing as of late and the other odd home losses at Lambeau this year, it should add up to a Panther victory.
MY PICK: Panthers
Miami Dolphins ( 6 – 5 ) v. St. Louis Rams ( 2 – 9 )
After seeing Miami’s offense hold its own against the Patriots last week I am more than confident they destroy the Rams. The Dolphins have been improving this week while the Rams keep getting worse and worse. They can’t score and they can’t stop anyone. The offensive line is decimated and Bulger will be eating more turf than your neighborhood cow. Expect Reggie Brown & Ricky Williams to have big games. This game should be over real early.
MY PICK: Dolphins
New Orleans Saints ( 6 – 5 ) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( 8 – 3 )
The Saints looked very impressive against the Packers last Monday night. More importantly, Reggie Bush returns from his injury. The Buccaneers are quietly becoming one of the best teams in the NFC. The offense under Garcia’s leadership does not turn the ball over and the defense usually seals the deal. They came back from 17-0 down in the first quarter to defeat the Lions easily. When they need to get the job done, they usually do. This game will hinge on how much of a factor Reggie Bush is.
MY PICK: Buccaneers
New York Giants ( 10 – 1 ) v. Washington Redskins ( 7 – 4 )
It’s funny how after taking a small break Friday night, I wake up to hear that Plaxico Burress accidentally shot himself in the thigh and will likely miss the rest of the season. The Giants haven’t missed him in many games this year, but those were against inferior teams. The Redskins are much better than Arizona. They may have lost the first game 17-6, but they did hold the Giants scoreless in the second half. This game is at home but it’s still the Giants. The differences between the Redskins wins and losses are the turnovers. When they don’t turn the ball over, they win, when they do, they lose. Even if the Giants turn it over once or twice, they have the offensive firepower to score quickly. The Redskins do not. They are too deliberate and don’t have the ability to blow teams out like Seattle. I think the Giant defense will cause Campbell to turn the ball over a few times and that will be the difference between a win and a loss.
MY PICK: Giants
Atlanta Falcons ( 7 – 4 ) v. San Diego Chargers ( 4 – 7 )
The Chargers stink. Something is wrong with LaDanian Tomlinson and I don’t thin it’s age. Philip Rivers and the wide receivers can’t seem to get on the same pages and the Chargers don’t pressure the quarterback as much as they used. Their run defense is also suspect. I think Matt Ryan will have a mediocre game, but Michael Turner should rush for over 125 yards. This will be one of the closer games this week, but I don’t trust San Diego, even though they can still win their division.
MY PICK: Falcons
Denver Broncos ( 6 – 5 ) v. New York Jets ( 8 – 3 )
The Broncos and Jets have something in common. They both lost to Oakland. The similarities basically stop there. The Jets are one of the most improved games this season. Kris Jenkins is my new pick for MVP and teams cannot run on the Jets anymore. Didn’t matter anyway, Denver still can’t find a running back that can stay healthy this season. The Jets can run the ball with Leon Washington & Thomas Jones. The Broncos can’t stop the run. The Jets have Brett Favre, the Broncos can’t pressure the quarterback with their diminutive defensive line. The Jets can pressure the quarterback. Expect Cutler and Brandon Marshall to have tough games, especially with Abram Elam and Ty Law being turnover monsters in the secondary. The Jets ca win this game by using the run and not having to rely on Brett Favre. They are a much better team, as long as they don’t get complacent and play down to their competition, a typical Jet characteristic.
MY PICK: Jets (my daughter will be happy)
Kansas City Chiefs ( 1 – 10 ) v. Oakland Raiders ( 3 – 8 )
Give the Raiders credit, they beat the hell out of the Broncos. Give the Bills credit, they beat the hell out of the Chiefs. Guess what? I don’t care. I still don’t have faith in the Raiders and I still like the Chiefs. But let’s look at this from a reasonable perspective. The Raider offense has been inconsistent. They did beat the Chiefs when most of the players were playing their second game in the league and Damon Huard was the starter. Tyler Thigpen has done well this season and he wasn’t all that terrible against the Bills. If he can keep the turnovers down they should be able to win. As I said, I’m not fully sold on the Raiders and I think the Chiefs are a better team, if they can avoid the turnover.
MY PICK: Chiefs
Pittsburgh Steelers ( 8 – 3 ) v. New England Patriots ( 7 – 4 )
This should be a good game. While the Patriots have been improving with Matt Cassel under center, he will not throw for 400 yards against the best defense in the league. The Patriots running game is still suspect and the Steelers are not going to give Moss the room he has enjoyed recently. This is also a defense that does not give up yardage in the middle, so don’t be surprised if Wes Welker is held under 75 yards receiving.
MY PICK: Steelers
Chicago Bears ( 6 – 5 ) v. Minnesota Vikings ( 6 – 5 )
This is an odd game for NBC to flex into. Both teams are inconsistent and to be honest, not that good. The Bears defense played really well against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which have a far better passing attack than Gus Frerotte and the Vikings. Last time they played it was a 48-41 game with the Bears scoring 14 points on defensive and special teams touchdowns. Don’t forget the other 10 points they score off Gus Frerotte interceptions. The Bears offense has been inconsistent and will have trouble running against the Viking D-line, but the passing attack combined with terrible Viking quarterback play should put the Bears in the division lead.
MY PICK: Bears.
Jacksonville Jaguars ( 4 – 7 ) v. Houston Texans ( 4 – 7 )
This should have been a good Monday night game, but both teams are terrible. If the Jaguars can hold on to the ball they should be able to win. There are three keys to this game. First, can Jacksonville hold on to the ball? Second, can the Jaguars stop Steve Slaton and the running attack? Finally, can they keep Mario Williams off of David Garrard? If they can, then they should win. However, I don’t foreseeit, but with Jacksonville you never know.
MY PICK: Texans
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