PCP Sports

by Michael DeLuca

Getting ready for the big draft this weekend?  While many people will obsess over who their first round pick may be, I challange anyone to name me a single league which was won as a result of a first round pick.  No, often times it’s those sleepers, the value picks, that get the job done.  For example, last year Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, and Randy Moss were universally drafted in rounds 3-5 last year, yet I’ll bet their names can be found on a large majority of 2007 fantasy league championship rosters.  What I’ve decided to do is put together a list of round by round gems and busts based on a ten team league, one gem and one bust per round.  I’ll be using the comprehensive ADP list we had published earlier.  Away we go…

ROUND 1-

ROUND 1 GEM – Marion Barber – Barber is set to take over as the primary back for the Cowboys this year and though Felix Jones will get his share of touches, they will not be at Barber’s expense.  Barber will handle all goal-line duties for an explosive offense and could be in store for a 20+ touchdown season and his first 1000+ yard rushing season.

ROUND 1 BUST - Steven Jackson – He’s already starting to fall down a lot of draft boards as a result of his pro-longed holdout.  It appears he’s now back in the fold, but Jackson’s fantasy owners shouldn’t breathe a sighe of relief just yet.  Getting into game shape and being a productive back are no guarantees after an extended holdout and history has told us that a significant injury is more likely than a Pro-Bowl performance.

ROUND 2-

ROUND 2 GEM - Braylon Edwards - Edwards is an absolute stud and began to show flashes of his brilliance during a spectacular 07-08 campaign.  Edwards also has the luxury of having two solid quarterbacks in the Browns organization so an injury at that position shouldn’t slow him down.

ROUND 2 BUST - Ryan Grant - Grant’s become everybody’s fantasy darling, but despite having a productive 2008 season, look for a sophomore slump of massive proportions for Grant.  Brandon Jackson will be the third down back and defenses will be able to focus on the run with Aaron Rodgers taking over the QB reigns.

ROUND 3-

ROUND 3 GEM - Drew Brees - Brees has quietly been among the most productive fantasy quarterbacks for four years running.  This year may be his best yet as Marques Colston enters his third year and Jeremy Shockey gets added to the mix.

ROUND 3 BUST - Steve Smith - Already suspended for the first two games of the season, Smith doesn’t warrant round three consideration, yet is still being selected here on a consistant basis.  His production has slid over the past several years and the lack of a reliable #2 allows teams to consistantly double him.  Muhsin Muhammad and DJ Hackett will do little to keep opposing secondaries from focusing on Smith.

Round 4-

ROUND 4 GEM - Brandon Jacobs – Jacobs is a gem in what could turn out to be a round full of busts.  He’s had problems staying on the field, but if he can, he’s a beast who should push 15 touchdowns.

ROUND 4 BUST - Ronnie Brown - Brown is coming off a significant injury and judging from his preseason performance, it might take another full year until he is back to 100%.  Add to that the resurgance of Ricky Williams and it could be a very disapointing season for Brown owners.

Round 5-

ROUND 5 GEM - Calvin Johnson - Every report on this guy screams the same thing…watch out!  He’s scorching opposing defenders in preseason, has all the physical tools, and Roy Williams himself has annointed him as the team’s #1 receiver.

ROUND 5 BUST - Willie Parker - Alan Faneca is a Jet.  Reshard Mendenhall is a Steeler.

Round 6-

ROUND 6 GEM - Marvin Harrison - For the first time in years, Harrison will not be a top 15 pick.  When the offseason began, I wouldn’t have touched him with a ten foot pole, but Harrison has been burning db’s all preseason and looks like his old self.  Look for fantasy owners in your league to be scavaging fantasy mags written in May allowing you to swoop in and steal Harrison in round 6!

ROUND 6 BUST - Julius Jones - He’s stuck in a timeshare with Maurice Morris behind a below average run blocking line.

Round 7-

ROUND 7 GEM - Chris Chambers - After a full offseason to learn the playbook and become acclimated with the offense, Chambers should flourish in the prolific Chargers offense.

ROUND 7 BUST - Matt Hasselbeck - Who’s he going to throw to?

Round 8-

ROUND 8 GEM - Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery somehow managed to emerge as a viable fantasy player with a myriad of a below avergae quarterbacks chucking him the ball.  Brett Favre has made stars of players with much less ability than Cotchery.

ROUND 8 BUST - Matt Forte - Talentless rookie running backs, that play on terrible teams that are forced to throw the ball for three quarters, rarley succeed.

Round 9-

ROUND 9 GEM - Jeremy Shockey - Drew Brees knows how to find his tight end and Shockey’s most productive season in New York was with Sean Payton as offensive co-ordinator.

ROUND 9 BUST - Bobby Engram- Engram will turn 104 during the course of this season, yet is being selected in drafts higher than he ever has before.  He’s already dealing with injuries and is nothing more than a possession receiver.

Round 10-

ROUND 10 GEM - Vincent Jackson - Jackson has been labeled a sleeper by the fantasy pugnits for several year’s now.  This year, the expectations finally come to fruition.

ROUND 10 BUST - Ahman Green- To beat out Javon Walker for fantasy bust is a tough feat, but something tells me Green will be without a team when the regular season begins and there’s a long list of veteran running backs still looking for a team.